Saturday, December 11, 2010

Copied from Rekindling the flame of analysing with Fundamental Analysis from 'Time To Huat!' blog :

...wouldn’t life be easier if I have a valuation model that will automatically adjust its’ value based any new earnings report. Then if the price is trading below the “valued intrinsic price” I will be looking to buy and if the price is trading above “valued intrinsic price” then I will be looking to take profit.
But the challenge is how to calculate a “valued intrinsic price”?
Let me share with you what are the various valuation models that is currently being practised in the market:

1) Dividend growth model (or known as Dividend discount model)
• Based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) concept to calculate the present value of future dividend to derive an intrinsic value. Below are the detailed explaination :

Stock Valuation Models (Part1 – NAV model)

Stock Valuation Models (Part2 – Earnings & Expected Return)

Stock Valuation Models (Part3 – Discounted Cash Flow Model)

Stock Valuation Models (Part4 – Discounted Dividend Model)

2) Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
• Based on identifying the relationship of risk (Beta) and expected rate of return which is eventually used to price risky securities

3) Graham valuation model
• Based on using earning per share (EPS) and earnings growth to derive a an intrinsic value

4) Buffet’s valuation model
• Based on using  combo of Dividend Discount Model and Graham’s valuation model. (This is really new to me)

Friday, December 10, 2010

Current Portfolio

My Portfolio is divided into the following  :

ACTIVE PORTFOLIOS

High Yield Portfolio
1. AIMS AMPI Reit
2. LippoMapleT - LMIR

Growth Portfolio
1. Raffles Edu
2. Annica
3. Abterra
4. China Sports
5. Penguin
6. Eunetwork

Cyclical Portfolio
Nil

PASSIVE PORTFOLIOS

Yield Portfolio
1. Ascendas
2. Ascott
3. Plife
4. Starhill Global
5. Cambridge

Capital Gain Portfolio
1. Innovalu
2. Midas
3. Ying Li

Active Portfolio is what I am actively trading / investing. Passive Portfolio is those stocks that I have with nearly $0 capital outlay.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

FA - To Average Down or Not?

Ask the following whether to average down to accumulate or sell at loss :

1. Is the original reason for buying into the company is still valid?
2. If the reason is still valid, look at the numbers.
3. If the company is financially healthy and now trading at below what it is worth, I would look at accumulating.
4. I would then look at the charts to find a fair entry price and load up.

FA - Steps to buy stocks

Steps when using FA to buy stocks :

1. Look at the sector versus the economy.
2. Look at the company's numbers to ensure 
- not over-valued, 
- profitable, 
- not too highly geared
- has good cashflow. 
3. Compare the company's numbers to its peers. 

There are other things to look at in time but these 3 points form the core of my fundamental analyses. 

Then, I use technical analysis (charting) to decide on fair entry points.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

LippoMapleT - LMIR

MA - Price possibly will go down for the next few days and then rebounce at 0.505. Strong supports by Bolinger band, 100dma and trend channel.

Volume - Even though a little bit high, but history shows that similar volume quantity in the past does not have negative effect on the price.

ADX - Possible consolidation of pricing for the next few days as ADX going past 20. Look for possible crosing of +DI upwards for and positive trending.

MACD - Moving towards 0. Momentum starting to build up.

MFI - Above 50 shows more buying interest.

Conclusion :
Looks like this counter will continue it's upward trend. However it will have a short consolidation period before resuming any further upward move.

CALL : BUY when stochastics at oversold region
TARGET : 0.505

AIMS AMP

MA - 100dma is trending up and might be the immediate support.

Volume - Tapering. Might be consolidating.

Price - Formation of symmetrical triangle shows that the market is currently indecisive of where the trend is going to be.

ADX - The uptrend is still strong.

MACD - Not much momentum at this moment. But look out for sign of MACD line crossing signal line and 0, as sign of upward move.

Stochastics - Lower highs shows less buying pressure.

OBV - Not much movements

Conclusion :

CALL : HOLD but monitor for TREND

STI

STI Daily :
Seems to be forming head and shoulders. Currently in sideways as ADX is below 20. Beware of the possible start of downward trend.

CALL : MONITOR to SELL

Abterra

As volume too low, TA might not be significant. However, better than nothing :

MA - Closed below 50dma. Support gave way. Next support at 1.185

ADX - ADX line currently below 20, meaning that the trend is weak, in sideways at this moment. -DI (red line) is going upwards above 20, meaning that the downtrend is getting stronger and stronger.

MFI - Going down below 50% and ongoing. Less and less mass interest on this counter.

MACD - Touching 0 and going towards negative zone. Less and less momentum going on.

RSI - Touching 30 and still going downward. Estimate that the price will be going down further and stay for a while in oversold region before rebouncing.

OBV - No sign of distribution yet.

Conclusion :
All indicators showed downward bias except OBV. If OBV maintains, The downtrend will not be drastic. But if OBV becomes red within the next few days, need to cut loss.

CALL : MONITOR for SELL
TARGET : 1.285
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