Copied from Rekindling the flame of analysing with Fundamental Analysis from 'Time To Huat!' blog :
...wouldn’t life be easier if I have a valuation model that will automatically adjust its’ value based any new earnings report. Then if the price is trading below the “valued intrinsic price” I will be looking to buy and if the price is trading above “valued intrinsic price” then I will be looking to take profit.
But the challenge is how to calculate a “valued intrinsic price”?
Let me share with you what are the various valuation models that is currently being practised in the market:
1) Dividend growth model (or known as Dividend discount model)
• Based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) concept to calculate the present value of future dividend to derive an intrinsic value. Below are the detailed explaination :
Stock Valuation Models (Part1 – NAV model)
Stock Valuation Models (Part2 – Earnings & Expected Return)
Stock Valuation Models (Part3 – Discounted Cash Flow Model)
Stock Valuation Models (Part4 – Discounted Dividend Model)
2) Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
• Based on identifying the relationship of risk (Beta) and expected rate of return which is eventually used to price risky securities
3) Graham valuation model
• Based on using earning per share (EPS) and earnings growth to derive a an intrinsic value
4) Buffet’s valuation model
• Based on using combo of Dividend Discount Model and Graham’s valuation model. (This is really new to me)
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Friday, December 10, 2010
Current Portfolio
My Portfolio is divided into the following :
ACTIVE PORTFOLIOS
2. LippoMapleT - LMIR
2. Annica
3. Abterra
4. China Sports
5. Penguin
6. Eunetwork
PASSIVE PORTFOLIOS
2. Ascott
3. Plife
4. Starhill Global
5. Cambridge
2. Midas
3. Ying Li
Active Portfolio is what I am actively trading / investing. Passive Portfolio is those stocks that I have with nearly $0 capital outlay.
ACTIVE PORTFOLIOS
High Yield Portfolio
1. AIMS AMPI Reit2. LippoMapleT - LMIR
Growth Portfolio
1. Raffles Edu2. Annica
3. Abterra
4. China Sports
5. Penguin
6. Eunetwork
Cyclical Portfolio
NilPASSIVE PORTFOLIOS
Yield Portfolio
1. Ascendas2. Ascott
3. Plife
4. Starhill Global
5. Cambridge
Capital Gain Portfolio
1. Innovalu2. Midas
3. Ying Li
Active Portfolio is what I am actively trading / investing. Passive Portfolio is those stocks that I have with nearly $0 capital outlay.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
FA - To Average Down or Not?
Ask the following whether to average down to accumulate or sell at loss :
1. Is the original reason for buying into the company is still valid?
2. If the reason is still valid, look at the numbers.
3. If the company is financially healthy and now trading at below what it is worth, I would look at accumulating.
4. I would then look at the charts to find a fair entry price and load up.
1. Is the original reason for buying into the company is still valid?
2. If the reason is still valid, look at the numbers.
3. If the company is financially healthy and now trading at below what it is worth, I would look at accumulating.
4. I would then look at the charts to find a fair entry price and load up.
FA - Steps to buy stocks
Steps when using FA to buy stocks :
1. Look at the sector versus the economy.
2. Look at the company's numbers to ensure
- not over-valued,
- profitable,
- not too highly geared
- has good cashflow.
3. Compare the company's numbers to its peers.
There are other things to look at in time but these 3 points form the core of my fundamental analyses.
Then, I use technical analysis (charting) to decide on fair entry points.
1. Look at the sector versus the economy.
2. Look at the company's numbers to ensure
- not over-valued,
- profitable,
- not too highly geared
- has good cashflow.
3. Compare the company's numbers to its peers.
There are other things to look at in time but these 3 points form the core of my fundamental analyses.
Then, I use technical analysis (charting) to decide on fair entry points.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
LippoMapleT - LMIR
MA - Price possibly will go down for the next few days and then rebounce at 0.505. Strong supports by Bolinger band, 100dma and trend channel.
Volume - Even though a little bit high, but history shows that similar volume quantity in the past does not have negative effect on the price.
ADX - Possible consolidation of pricing for the next few days as ADX going past 20. Look for possible crosing of +DI upwards for and positive trending.
MACD - Moving towards 0. Momentum starting to build up.
MFI - Above 50 shows more buying interest.
Conclusion :
Looks like this counter will continue it's upward trend. However it will have a short consolidation period before resuming any further upward move.
CALL : BUY when stochastics at oversold region
TARGET : 0.505
Volume - Even though a little bit high, but history shows that similar volume quantity in the past does not have negative effect on the price.
ADX - Possible consolidation of pricing for the next few days as ADX going past 20. Look for possible crosing of +DI upwards for and positive trending.
MACD - Moving towards 0. Momentum starting to build up.
MFI - Above 50 shows more buying interest.
Conclusion :
Looks like this counter will continue it's upward trend. However it will have a short consolidation period before resuming any further upward move.
CALL : BUY when stochastics at oversold region
TARGET : 0.505
AIMS AMP
MA - 100dma is trending up and might be the immediate support.
Volume - Tapering. Might be consolidating.
Price - Formation of symmetrical triangle shows that the market is currently indecisive of where the trend is going to be.
ADX - The uptrend is still strong.
MACD - Not much momentum at this moment. But look out for sign of MACD line crossing signal line and 0, as sign of upward move.
Stochastics - Lower highs shows less buying pressure.
OBV - Not much movements
Conclusion :
CALL : HOLD but monitor for TREND
Volume - Tapering. Might be consolidating.
Price - Formation of symmetrical triangle shows that the market is currently indecisive of where the trend is going to be.
ADX - The uptrend is still strong.
MACD - Not much momentum at this moment. But look out for sign of MACD line crossing signal line and 0, as sign of upward move.
Stochastics - Lower highs shows less buying pressure.
OBV - Not much movements
Conclusion :
CALL : HOLD but monitor for TREND
STI
STI Daily :
Seems to be forming head and shoulders. Currently in sideways as ADX is below 20. Beware of the possible start of downward trend.
CALL : MONITOR to SELL
Seems to be forming head and shoulders. Currently in sideways as ADX is below 20. Beware of the possible start of downward trend.
CALL : MONITOR to SELL
Abterra
As volume too low, TA might not be significant. However, better than nothing :
MA - Closed below 50dma. Support gave way. Next support at 1.185
ADX - ADX line currently below 20, meaning that the trend is weak, in sideways at this moment. -DI (red line) is going upwards above 20, meaning that the downtrend is getting stronger and stronger.
MFI - Going down below 50% and ongoing. Less and less mass interest on this counter.
MACD - Touching 0 and going towards negative zone. Less and less momentum going on.
RSI - Touching 30 and still going downward. Estimate that the price will be going down further and stay for a while in oversold region before rebouncing.
OBV - No sign of distribution yet.
Conclusion :
All indicators showed downward bias except OBV. If OBV maintains, The downtrend will not be drastic. But if OBV becomes red within the next few days, need to cut loss.
CALL : MONITOR for SELL
TARGET : 1.285
MA - Closed below 50dma. Support gave way. Next support at 1.185
ADX - ADX line currently below 20, meaning that the trend is weak, in sideways at this moment. -DI (red line) is going upwards above 20, meaning that the downtrend is getting stronger and stronger.
MFI - Going down below 50% and ongoing. Less and less mass interest on this counter.
MACD - Touching 0 and going towards negative zone. Less and less momentum going on.
RSI - Touching 30 and still going downward. Estimate that the price will be going down further and stay for a while in oversold region before rebouncing.
OBV - No sign of distribution yet.
Conclusion :
All indicators showed downward bias except OBV. If OBV maintains, The downtrend will not be drastic. But if OBV becomes red within the next few days, need to cut loss.
CALL : MONITOR for SELL
TARGET : 1.285
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