Distribution - Schematic 1 Example - Capitaland

Capitaland - 6 May 2018

Capitaland M

Currently in ACCUMULATION Phase D.
Price will slowly step up 3.87, 4.11 , 4.44, 5.23, 6.24.
Then will go into Uptrend.

OBV direction not clear

Capitaland W

Mid Term showing SOW - DISTRIBUTION
OBV direction not clear

SHORT at UTAD or LPSY

UTAD
- similar to Spring / Shakeout
- breakout above Trading Range (TR) Resistance Line, at later stage of TR
- breakout on :
---- light volume with no follow through (Weak shortist covering up)
---- or heavy volume with breakout back into center of TR (Supply from BB)

LPSY1
- after SOW ===> feeble rally on narrow spread with light volume (no demand) or high volume (supply from BB)
- after that Mark Down start ===> break 1st ice ===> short rally to LPSY2 ===> continue Mark Down

Capitaland D

Now Uptrend Wave 3. Will go Down then Up.
Then UTAD.
Then go DOWN.

OBV direction not clear


CONCLUSION

Distribution in Weekly Chart
SHORT soon

EP :

Traded Volume Secret

Let me share a bit on volume. I didn't go for si mi VSA course or read book on this. I shared what I learned from my past losing journey.

Traded Volume is an important indicator that every trader must have below their chart. Volume can reveal some story about the counter. A counter that moved from low price to high price also starts from low traded volume to high traded volume. So if you want to see whether a dead counter have any chance of moving up you should look at the traded volume. When traded volume SUDDENLY increased, this tells us that something is going on with the counter & high chance got BBs come in liao. If no BBs, who generate those volume?. Cannot be retailers because cannot be suddenly so many retailers interested in a dead counter. So, a sudden increased in traded volume means there's a chance the counter may start to be alive & price may move up. But we cannot only take a sudden 1 day surge in volume as confirmation because there are times where the counter only have 1 day big traded volume & after that go into dead mode again. We need to see a few days of good traded volume.

Below are 4 charts I posted as reference and look at the volume bars. You will notice the similarity.

Before the sudden surge in traded volume (shaded blue), the volume were very low for long period of time(see left side of the blue shaded area). You will noticed I shaded 2 areas blue. 1st shaded blue showed volume suddenly come in. 2nd shaded blue give me sort of a confirmation that the volume for the 1st shaded blue are "real" volume. Meaning, it sort of give me a confirmation that BBs are in for real stuff.....they going to push the counter. I drew a diagonal line up to show that price started to trend up as volume comes in. Once we see the 2nd shaded blue volume with price started to move up, we can start to pick up some to keep for a while. If there's no price spread, we can also play contra.

So after buy & pick up liao when to sell leh?. When to sell also look at the traded volume & price. When you see price at high with extreme traded volume(see red shaded area) especially with bearish candlestick or candlestick pattern, it's time to sell. Normally you will see 5-6 digit traded volume with more pips intraday movement. Traded volume from start of hundreds lots to tenths of thousands not extreme meh. Extreme traded volume at high price usually mean distribution is going on.

You can also see the change in buy sell queue during the process of small to extreme traded volume or low to high price. The buy sell queue starts from less than 100lots or 100-200lots(sometimes with price spread) to few hundred lots & then 1-2k lots & finally we see 4-5k or even have 10k lots at a certain price. As price goes higher, the buy sell queue get bigger. Bigger buy sell queue is also for distribution purpose.

Many reasons for a dead counter to suddenly come alive. There must be good reasons to support price to move up....e.g. FA improved. If no reason come alive one, maybe just pump for directors to unload, or for share placement, or pump for someone to run road before company close down etc. So no good reason chiong one don't hold tight tight else you may have to pass this counter to your grandchildren.

Now you know why I call for Compact, Hoe Leong & recently Vashion. From Raymond here.

VSA basic

First, your reference of that highlight sideway price action on your chart is called a trading range. Secondly, you need to re-study Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) within accumulation (buying) / distribution (selling) via whatever resource you've been using if it contains the information. Simply, the highlighted area (trading range) on your chart does not represent an overall theme of accumulation. In contrast, the overall theme in that highlighted area is distribution. Yet, there are small areas in that highlighted area of distribution that represents accumulation (e.g. mid May and mid June).

Therefore, I highly recommend you learn about accumulation/distribution outside of VSA via Wyckoff (supply/demand) or Wyckoff's Market Phases. You should also learn about support/resistance or supply/demand within trading ranges. Next, after you've developed a strong understanding of Wyckoff accumulation/distribution, support/resistance, supply/demand you can then return to using VSA and merge that knowledge with your VSA. Simply, get your evidence or knowledge about accumulation/distribution from outside resources if your current VSA resource lacks the information.

By the way, here at Traderslaboratory there are excellent old discussions about Wyckoff via supply/demand.

P.S. I don't use VSA. Instead, I've been told by several VSA users that Wyckoff's Market Phases has given them a stronger understanding of VSA and improved their trading of VSA after they've been having problems being profitable via VSA. You have a lot of work to do and don't take another trade until you've mastered accumulation/distribution on its own two feet. 


From here