Wednesday, December 6, 2017
Traded Volume Secret
Let me share a bit on volume. I didn't go for si mi VSA course or read book on this. I shared what I learned from my past losing journey.
Traded Volume is an important indicator that every trader must have below their chart. Volume can reveal some story about the counter. A counter that moved from low price to high price also starts from low traded volume to high traded volume. So if you want to see whether a dead counter have any chance of moving up you should look at the traded volume. When traded volume SUDDENLY increased, this tells us that something is going on with the counter & high chance got BBs come in liao. If no BBs, who generate those volume?. Cannot be retailers because cannot be suddenly so many retailers interested in a dead counter. So, a sudden increased in traded volume means there's a chance the counter may start to be alive & price may move up. But we cannot only take a sudden 1 day surge in volume as confirmation because there are times where the counter only have 1 day big traded volume & after that go into dead mode again. We need to see a few days of good traded volume.
Below are 4 charts I posted as reference and look at the volume bars. You will notice the similarity.
Before the sudden surge in traded volume (shaded blue), the volume were very low for long period of time(see left side of the blue shaded area). You will noticed I shaded 2 areas blue. 1st shaded blue showed volume suddenly come in. 2nd shaded blue give me sort of a confirmation that the volume for the 1st shaded blue are "real" volume. Meaning, it sort of give me a confirmation that BBs are in for real stuff.....they going to push the counter. I drew a diagonal line up to show that price started to trend up as volume comes in. Once we see the 2nd shaded blue volume with price started to move up, we can start to pick up some to keep for a while. If there's no price spread, we can also play contra.
So after buy & pick up liao when to sell leh?. When to sell also look at the traded volume & price. When you see price at high with extreme traded volume(see red shaded area) especially with bearish candlestick or candlestick pattern, it's time to sell. Normally you will see 5-6 digit traded volume with more pips intraday movement. Traded volume from start of hundreds lots to tenths of thousands not extreme meh. Extreme traded volume at high price usually mean distribution is going on.
You can also see the change in buy sell queue during the process of small to extreme traded volume or low to high price. The buy sell queue starts from less than 100lots or 100-200lots(sometimes with price spread) to few hundred lots & then 1-2k lots & finally we see 4-5k or even have 10k lots at a certain price. As price goes higher, the buy sell queue get bigger. Bigger buy sell queue is also for distribution purpose.
Many reasons for a dead counter to suddenly come alive. There must be good reasons to support price to move up....e.g. FA improved. If no reason come alive one, maybe just pump for directors to unload, or for share placement, or pump for someone to run road before company close down etc. So no good reason chiong one don't hold tight tight else you may have to pass this counter to your grandchildren.
Thursday, November 16, 2017
How to Tackle Crisis
A former NASA flight director explains how to stay calm in a crisis
- Paul Hill (pictured) said NASA’s mission control room tends to get quiet when the pressure’s on.
- Paul Sean Hill
• Hill shared the strategies he used to keep calm when things went wrong in mission control.
• He told Business Insider such tactics included focusing on the data, tamping down impulses, and retaining a level of “fear.”
Looking back now on an incident that took place in 2001 while he directed a flight from NASA’s mission control room, Paul Hill often thinks, “Holy cow, we could’ve killed everybody.”
But in that moment, during the space shuttle Discovery’s March 2001 expedition to the International Space Station (ISS), Hill just focused on the facts at hand.
The shuttle was docked at the ISS when a flight controller flagged the fact that one of its two cooling loops had essentially stopped working – possibly due to ice forming inside the system.
If the ice broke off, it could ultimately damage the cooling system and burn out Discovery’s computers.
The crews and mission control would then have about half an hour to either risk loss of life and initiate an emergency de-orbit, or remain stranded on the space station with a dead shuttle.
“That wasn’t good news,” Hill told Business Insider.
Hill, the author of “Leadership from the Mission Control Room to the Boardroom: A Guide to Unleashing Team Performance,” worked on 24 different space shuttle and ISS missions as a flight director and led the investigation into the 2003 Columbia disaster.
He told Business Insider that NASA’s flight controllers employ certain strategies and thought processes to combat stress during crises. Those tactics came in handy during the 2001 incident.
- Paul Hill (pictured) previously worked on 24 different space shuttle and ISS missions as a flight director.
- Paul Sean Hill
‘We would’ve lost that shuttle’
Mission control woke up both the space station crew and the shuttle crew, who started working to solve the problem with the cooling loop. The engineering support team failed to identify the issue. Hill and his team watched the data, as mission control became quieter.
“Everybody tends to become more focused and more calm as they’re working through the data, talking to each other, talking to the flight director on the voice loops, and making decisions,” he said.
The crew corrected the issue by running both cooling loops hotter than they were supposed to be run.
Ultimately, the Discovery completed its mission and landed safely. A review of the cooling systems confirmed there’d been excess moisture in the loops.
“Had we not treated it the way we did, we would’ve lost that shuttle,” Hill said. “There’s a really good chance we could have lost those astronauts if that’d happened after we had un-docked or we had tried something foolish like jumping off the space station and trying to run for the ground.”
After it was all over, the space station program manager came in and commended the mission control team.
“It was the first time I actually sort of disconnected from what we were doing and thought, ‘Oh yeah, these guys are doing a great job. They are really good,'” Hill said. “Up until then it was all about doing the right thing and not taking our eyes off the ball.”
Mission control has a strategy for staving off panic
This intense focus is partly how the flight controllers are able deal with potentially catastrophic situations. Instead of “running down the halls with our hair on fire,” Hill said the team would focus on a series of questions.
• What was everything they knew – and did not know – about the situation at hand?
• What did the data actually say about the situation at hand?
• What was the worst thing that could happen as a result of the situation?
• Did the team have enough information to know for sure – and how could they get more information?
• What immediate steps could be taken to continue making progress in the mission or keep everyone safe?
He said it’s important not to let past strategies or outcomes bias your understanding about a new crisis – whether you’re flying people into space or launching your own business.
“Where you get in trouble is some bad thing starts happening and you feel the urge to start taking action,” he said. “You say, ‘Hey, I’ve been in this situation before. This is what we did the last three times. It’s always worked so I’m going to do it again.'”
- “Really ugly emergencies in mission control, once you get trained and you’re accustomed to the environment, aren’t that difficult to deal with,” Hill (pictured) told Business Insider.
- Paul Sean Hill
‘Oh my God, did we just do that?’
Hill said that’s why he always tried to instill a bit of “fear” in his team members, lest they allow their past successes go to their heads.
“What we do today, the decision we make today, matters,” he said. “We have to look at this data and make the right decision and take the right action or make the right recommendation to protect these astronauts, these people who are friends of ours.”
By focusing on scientific analysis and honing in on specific questions, Hill said NASA’s mission control is able to establish a calm, logic-driven environment, even in the midst of a potential crisis.
“As an old boss of mind said, ‘That first indication that you have a crisis is probably not when you want to go and jump out the window,'” Hill said. “Get a little bit more information, we can always panic later.”
Hill did just that, once the danger had passed during the crisis with the Discovery’s cooling loops.
“Really ugly emergencies in mission control, once you get trained and you’re accustomed to the environment, aren’t that difficult to deal with,” he said. “But when I walked out after I was finished with my shift, I remember looking up at the sky, and thinking, ‘Oh my God, did we just do that?'”
Friday, November 10, 2017
Fledgling Index Stock
The FTSE ST Fledgling Index is made up of SGX Mainboard-listed stocks that do not meet the size criteria for inclusion in the FTSE ST Small Cap Index. As of May 2017, there were 245 constituents of the Index.
In its weighted form, the FTSE ST Fledgling Index has generated a 12.4% price gain in the 2017 year-to-date while the current 10 biggest weights of the Index have averaged a 16.4% price gain.
However a caveat to the performance of the Index stocks that currently maintain the biggest weights is that with close to 250 constituents, the Index weights can change over time. So much so, that at the end of 2016, the 10 biggest weights of this Index included not all, but just six of the 10 current biggest weights of the Index.
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
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