Most of the evidence for these effects is anecdotal, although there is a slight statistical case to be made for some of them, which is more than enough to encourage some investors to place their faith in them.
Proponents of the October effect, one of the most popular theories, argue that October is when some of the greatest crashes in stock market history, including 1929's Black Tuesday and Thursday and the 1987 stock market crash, occurred. While statistical evidence doesn't support the phenomenon that stocks trade lower in October, the psychological expectations of the October effect still exist.
CALENDER MONTH
DECEMBER
Santa Claus Rally
A surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the week between Christmas and New Year's Day. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week. Many consider the Santa Claus rally to be a result of people buying stocks in anticipation of the rise in stock prices during the month of January, otherwise known as the January effect.
JANUARY
January Effect
A general increase in stock prices during the month of January. This rally is generally attributed to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, seeking to create tax losses to offset capital gains, prompt a sell-off.
The January effect is said to affect small caps more than mid or large caps. This historical trend, however, has been less pronounced in recent years because the markets have adjusted for it. Another reason the January effect is now considered less important is that more people are using tax-sheltered retirement plans and therefore have no reason to sell at the end of the year for a tax loss.
- Jan effect shows that from 1802-2004, Jan's return is highly than the other months for 16.9% of the time ( not very high in my opinion)
- Works best on countries with no tax on capital gains i.e Singapore ( But based on my own research from IRAS on tax laws. Apparently capital gains/loss does not affect on the individual level. It only affects companies. Hence I would think that this is more applicable to hedge funds and investment companies. By 'making a loss' this year, there are able to reduce their tax for this working year)
- Works best on small caps stock
OCTOBER
October Effect
The theory that stocks tend to decline during the month of October. The October effect is considered mainly to be a psychological expectation rather than an actual phenomenon. Most statistics go against the theory.
CALENDAR DAY
Monday Effect
A theory that states that returns on the stock market on Mondays will follow the prevailing trend from the previous Friday. Therefore, if the market was up on Friday, it should continue through the weekend and, come Monday, resume its rise.
Weekend Effect
A phenomenon in financial markets in which stock returns on Mondays are often significantly lower than those of the immediately preceding Friday. Some theories that explain the effect attribute the tendency for companies to release bad news on Friday after the markets close to depressed stock prices on Monday. Others state that the weekend effect might be linked to short selling, which would affect stocks with high short interest positions. Alternatively, the effect could simply be a result of traders' fading optimism between Friday and Monday.
The weekend effect has been a regular feature of stock trading patterns for many years. For example, according to a study by the Federal Reserve, prior to 1987 there was a statistically significant negative return over the weekends. However, the study did mention that this negative return had disappeared in the period from post-1987 to 1998. Since 1998, volatility over the weekends has increased again, and the phenomenon of the weekend effect remains a much debated topic.
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