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I was an OTC MM for about 10 years ending in the late 80's. Since
then I have been strictly an investor. Since I have not been that up to
date in MM rules I will only make statements that I feel fairly
confident are still accurate regarding these activities. By and large
most MM don't have a clue nor do they care to learn, about the
fundamentals of the stocks they trade.
They just try to make orderly markets. When dealing with BB stocks it
is very easy for a MM to get trapped into being short in dealing in a
fast moving market. Reason being; most of the MM's in this stock are
what are called "wholesalers" this means they don't have retail brokers
"working" the stocks.
So they have to rely on what's known as the "call" from larger retail
houses. If a "Big" retail firm like an E-trade calls up a market maker
to purchase say 5,000 shares of a stock, they expect to get an
"execution" from that market maker. If he turns them down, or only gives
a partial then the "Big" firm will go to another MM.
If this second MM "fills the order" then that "Big" firm has a moral
obligation to continue to give future "business" in that stock to that
MM who performed (his life blood). This will go on until he "fails" to
perform and so on.
Contrary to popular opinion the "Big" firms Do NOT neccessarily go to
the "Low Offer" to fill a buy order (Or high bid for a sell). They "Go"
to who they think will perform to fill the order and expect that MM to
"match" the "low offer" in the case of a buy (bid in the case of a
sell). Even though this MM might in fact be the "high bid" and not
really want to sell any more.
As a wholesaler he must perform or he will get a reputation as a
"non-performer" with the "Big" houses and will cease getting "calls"
which means he will soon go out of business. I mentioned above that this
activity is very significant to BB stocks. I say this because most of
the trades in these BB stocks are "unsolicited" and are done through
discount houses.
With the above groundwork laid, let me try to explain how market
makers get short even if they like the Company; Lets say that a stock
(shell) has been lying quietly at $.25 bid $.50 offered. A limit order
comes into one of the MM's to Buy at $.50 for a thousand shares. Prior
to this trade that MM may be "flat" (neither long or short any shares).
He fills the order and is now short 1,000 shares. He may raise his bid
hoping to find a seller to "flatten" out his position. But before he
realizes it a wave of buyers have come in and cleared out all the $.50
offers. Now the stock is $.50 bid .75 offered. Here comes that "Big"
firm he just sold the 1,000 shares to at .50 with another bid for 1000
at .75. He makes this print. Now he is short 2,000 at an average of
.625. The market keeps moving and now its .75 bid 1.00 offered. Now he
has to make a decision.
Just like investors, MM Hate to take a loss. So 9 times out of 10 he
will now sell 2000 at 1.00 making him short 4000 but with an average
.81. At this time he would love to see a seller at .75 so he can cover
his short and make a few bucks.
But instead the market keeps moving up. Now it is 1.00 to 1.25 and
here comes the buyer again at 1.25. He doesn't want to lose the call so
now he needs to sell 4,000 at 1.25 to keep his break even point above
the bid. Now he is short 8,000. Market moves up to 1.25 bid 1.50 offer
here comes the buyer now he feels he must sell 8000 here because "stocks
don't go up forever".
Now he is short 16,000. And so on and so on. If the stock keeps
moving up, before he realizes it he could be short 50k or 100k shares
(depending how big his bank is). _________________________
Finally the market closes for the day and on paper he may look all
right in that his "break even" price may be around the closing price.
But now he has to figure out how to entice sellers so he can cover this
short. It is important to note that if this happened to one MM it has
probably happened to most all of them.
Some ways MM's entice sellers; Run the stock up with a "tight spread"
in a fast market, then "open" up the spread to slow down the buying
interest. After it has "cooled off" for a little while lower the offer
below the last trade right after a small piece trades on the offer then
tighten the spread so that the sellers feel they can take a "quick
profit" by "hitting the bid" on the tight spread.
Once the selling starts the MM's will walk it down quickly by only
making small prints on the way down with the tight spread. Another way
is by running the stock up in the morning, averaging up their short then
use the above technique to walk it down in the afternoon.
Hopefully after doing this for several days, it will demoralize the
buyers. The volume will dry up and the sellers will materialize thinking
that the game is over.
Contrary to popular opinion, MM usually Do Not Cover in Fast moving
markets either Up or Down if they are short. They Short More. They
usually try to cover after the frenzy is out of the market. There are
many other techniques they use but the above are the most popular.
This technique works about 9 times out of 10 particularly in a BB
market. However that is because 9 out of 10 BB stocks are BS. Remember
what I said above. Most MM's don't have a clue as to the value of a
Company until they get trapped. If the Company has solid fundementals
and a bright future. Then the stock will do very well. And the activity
that caused the situation will prove to even help the future stock
activity because it created an audience."
Market Maker's Operating Procedure
The savvy long-term investors never chase stocks up. For the most
part that is momentum players and daytraders where most of it or what
follows is dumb money. Instead the long-term investors use a couple of
simple strategies in order to position themselves. One is to find a
stock no one immediately sees has huge potential and accumulate.
Long-term investors are not interested in trading against the public
mind or the dumb money. That's where the majority of the money can be
made but even more can be made if the base of a stock is held extremely
strong by investors. However the second is not to doubt the research
which is the underlying basis for going long and holding.
More and more investors are winning the game nowadays despite all
bashers that float through the Internet that has become part of the
game. Floor traders of market makers often watch CNBC, news wires and
bulletin boards in order to follow the market during trading session.
OTC BB market makers (MMs) don't use fundamental and technical analysis.
However, what they do realize is a lot of dumb money does use this
newest nitch charting or TA (Technical Analysis) to run a stock either
up or down. To the MMs this is like taking candy from a baby. Simply
they will paint the tape and use whatever tactic to affect the charting
bands. Thus the public and dumb money they will have eating out of their
hands. Effectively the MMs can show a strong stock growing weak by
manipulating the close price in order to generate selling volume,
delaying trading time to manipulate trading activities, or even stalling
the ask without honoring orders to hold a stock price.
MMs follow a simple code of business when making a market in a stock
especially an OTC BB. That is the level that stocks will seek that
yields the most volume. Now this is very important because they make
money on the volume buying at the bid and selling at the ask. In other
words, by making the market they are buying low and selling high. Now
smart money adheres to that rule, so do all the market makers. They
could careless whether the stock is at $83 or at $0.23. All they care
about is the action thus being able to sell stock at the offer (The
high) and buy stock at the bid (The low). To increase their
profitability, they make the spread as great as possible on as many
shares as they can especially if the volume falls off.
When they have mostly all "buy" orders, that's not the price that's
going to yield the most volume. They need both buy and sells to get the
maximum action. Remember, MMs play the volume. If the volume decreases
and there are mostly Buys that become a one way volume, Buy volume. So
what they do is let the stock run up to a price where it runs out of
steam. They fill all the buy orders there that they can and then comes
the pullback one way or another naturally or induced. During the pull
back they can buy tons of shares and flip them to those averaging down
or trying to catch the bounce. At some price, the stock will be
relatively stable and yield the most volume. Now that is the average
price you will see
The average price is the point where a stock seeks a level where MMs
can profit on the most volume. So during the day that is the price that
MMs and momentum/day traders want to see the stock at. Why? Because they
know the public and dumb money was chasing the price thing up. Most of
the time, the MMs love a flurry of Market Orders which is a dead sign of
an artificial run or momentum. Merely it is money in the bank for them.
Most get hung in a momentum or day trade or by the tactics of Market
makers, who are in the business to screw the public every chance they
get and the NASD is not going to do anything about it. They are merely
making the market liquid is there reasoning.
The market makers have created an added complication to the OTCBB's
chaos of the already volatile intra-day price movements created by dumb
money, momentum and day-traders. MMs can not relate to long-term holders
in the OTC BB. That makes absolutely no sense what so ever. They feel a
large percentage of trades in the OTC BB market consist of short-term
or day-trades, MMs merely view the barrage of buy and sell orders as
relatively neutral to the market. How they figure it is when the average
dumb money buys shares in a company, the MMs feel or rather know with
some certainty it is very likely that dumb money will want to sell back
those shares relatively quick on the slightest drop.
Now somewhat comfortable with this logic the MMs merely short sells
into the buying and attempts to take the stock down in an effort to
"shake out" the weak. Since it is tough to know for sure whether a move
is the beginning of a trend, or a routine shake out, this type of
deception works quite well for the MMs. What the long-termers do to a
stock is surprise the MMs because instead of falling the shorting has no
effect and the price goes up. Now that puts the MM at selling low
through shorting and thus having to buy high in order to cover.
Boy, when this happens, the MMs are not very happy campers. The
investors and traders are supposed to be doing that no them. Now it
becomes time to pull out every trick and tactic in the book in order to
attempt to get a Bear Raid at every dollar mark or percent from where
the stock started. Could be a penny in smaller priced securities? What
MMs do is give you a chance to make a small amount of money for your
momentum and day trading style by shorting it at these levels and trying
to get a bear raid each time. Each failure is compounding the MMs short
position so they let it go to the next level. Now come more deliberate
tactics MMs use to coerce Bear Raid or panic selling.
Once the MM is caught short and the strength of the buy is
overpowering the MM will want to cover his short position. So the MMs
call up one of his friendly MMs and says some like "the weather is sure
rough today." The MM along with the other "friendly MM initiates a down
tick about the same time. Now this can also be done with a certain
amount of shares such as an infamous 100 shares flag. This down tick
gives the illusion of weakness designed to hopefully begin the bear raid
of selling. The fickle, fearful, day trader, momentum and short term
begin to sell out allowing the MM to cover his short position at lower
prices. They will move it down quickly to get it to a price of least
financial damage. Problem they have is long-term investors in the OTC
BB. They start accumulating and buying comes flying in when they take it
too far thus the MMs took it to the point of volume again and not only
investors the other MMs step in the make money on the spread.
Alas the poor MM does not get to cover. Now comes various tactics
like stalling, boxing, or even locking the Bid and Ask for a while.
Of course, MMs aggressively deny any sort of collusion designed to
fix quotes or spreads, but a recent SEC investigation tells another
story.
MMs have a vast resource of tactics and it would take probably more than my lifetime to figure them all out.
So how do investors somehow manage to overcome the obvious deception
in OTCBB arena? One answer is indirection trading style by going long
which the MMs do not expect. In the war between investors and public
companies on the OTC BB vs the MMs, if the MMs have all the advantages
due to position or other factors, direct confrontation such as momentum
or day trading hitting the stock is a definite death sentence.
However, an indirect approach tends to weaken the path of least
resistance before slowly overcoming it. The most effective way is
long-term investors slowly accumulating and holding thus drawing the MMs
out of its defenses making them as naked as their short position. This
is war so this slow accumulation and holding for the long term easily
achieves the desired effect to force MMs to cover and knock off the
tactics or bury themselves deeper.
The MMs when caught will especially use every trick and tactic in the
book to get a Bear Raid thus playing on the individual fear of most
people. The MMs feel they have information and position advantages over
the investors as long as the holding of the stock is in weak hands or
short term holders. Since they are OTC BB MMs who believe all OTCBB
companies are not worth investing and management is ineffective
regardless what is happening within the company.Furthermore, MMs know
they are in the position to impose a great deal of influence in OTC BB
stocks trading when it suits their needs.
This inherent power of position enables the MMs to move the markets
at any time up or down. As a result, the only way to draw them out of
their favorable position is going long. Now this does not mean just any
company but to effectively nail the MMs, Longs must find the great
company on the floor and accumulate long before the MM tactics and games
begin.
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